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In engineering, for instance, this system is widely used to determine how risks should be managed and what design changes should be made to mitigate risk. How Risk Assessment Works The basic risk assessment process goes like this: first identify the hazard of concern second estimate a likelihood that the hazard will occur and finally estimate the consequences that would result. Do we move ahead and act, based on what we know now, or do we do nothing and wait until the science is settled and agreed to by all? (Of course the interesting thing about man-made global climate change is that by the time we do know everything for sure, and have managed to convince everyone, it will be far, far too late to do anything about it - climate change is essentially irreversible, in terms of human timescales). Sound familiar? This is exactly where we are with climate change right now. In short, we cannot let ourselves be paralysed into inactivity simply because the future is unknown. The fundamental precept is that we can never foresee the future with complete accuracy, but we nonetheless need to make decisions that allow business and society to move ahead.

An Uncertain World Risk assessment is widely used in decision-making around the world, by a huge variety of organisations in almost every industry and business sector, as a way of managing uncertainty. If we accept that we can never know the future with one hundred percent certainty, what really matters is this: what are the risks to humanity if climate change is real and we don’t act, and what are the risks if it isn’t real and we do. The debate on whether anthropogenic climate change is real or not is in fact largely irrelevant in the context of whether action should be taken to significantly reduce global emissions of greenhouse gases. Why The Science Doesn’t Really Matter Anthropogenic climate change is real, and presents a significant threat to the future prosperity of mankind or global warming is a myth, and moving away from fossil fuels will cost us a lot of money needlessly.